Washington, D.C., April 25, 2025— The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that sub-Saharan Africa’s fragile economic recovery is losing momentum under the combined weight of high debt, persistent inflation, and rising global instability.
Presenting the IMF’s April 2025 Regional Economic Outlook at the institution’s Spring Meetings in Washington, IMF African Department Director Abebe Selassie said the region is now expected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2025, down from previous forecasts.
Growth is projected to pick up slightly to 4.2 percent in 2026, but these figures reflect a downgrade prompted by tightening global financial conditions, lower commodity prices, and weaker external demand.
“Just when policy efforts began to bear fruit, with regional growth exceeding expectations in 2024, the region’s hard-won recovery was overtaken by a sudden realignment of global priorities casting a shadow over the outlook,” Selassie said.
He noted that external shocks are being felt intensely in the region, particularly through reduced investor confidence, higher borrowing costs, and shrinking access to official development assistance. These developments threaten to derail hard-won reforms and deepen socioeconomic vulnerabilities, especially in low-income and fragile states.
Internally, countries are contending with elevated inflation and unsustainable debt levels, which limit fiscal space for vital public investments and social spending. Although inflation has started to moderate in some parts of the region, monetary policy must remain tight in many economies to preserve macroeconomic stability.
Against this backdrop, the IMF report calls for credible and consistent policy actions focused on boosting domestic revenue, improving public financial management, and reducing borrowing costs. Selassie stressed the importance of strengthening governance, enhancing the business climate, and accelerating regional trade integration to enable private sector–led growth.
“High growth is imperative to engender the millions of jobs that are needed,” he said. “A strong, stable, and prosperous sub-Saharan Africa is important for its people but also the world.”
Selassie also highlighted Africa’s potential as a future driver of global labor supply and consumption. He called for sustained international support to help the region manage its demographic transition and realize its long-term potential.
Since 2020, the IMF has disbursed over $65 billion to the region, including $8 billion last year alone, in addition to ongoing policy and capacity development support.
